A modified inverse-velocity method for predicting the failure time of landslides

Abstract

Prediction of the failure time of landslides is always an important issue. Based on Fukuzono's theory, which suggests that the logarithm of the surface displacement velocity is proportional to the logarithm of the surface displacement acceleration in the final stage of the slope movement just before failure, a modified inverse velocity method was proposed by introducing a controllable variable. One landslide was detected in the certain open pit coal mine and four landslides were detected in the certain open-pit iron mine by using ground-based radar. In the four landslides in the certain open-pit iron mine, the acceleration obviously decreased a few hours before failure, which is inconsistent with the existing creep theory. The traditional inverse velocity method and the modified inverse velocity method were employed to analyze the five landslides. The analysis results show that the modified inverse velocity method can improve the effectiveness of prediction by reducing the prediction error caused by the acceleration decrease before failure. The modified inverse velocity method proposed in this paper not only improves the prediction accuracy but also provides a study direction to improve the inverse velocity method, that is, it introduces controllable variables to improve the prediction accuracy.