A modified entropy-based dynamic gravity model for the evacuation trip distribution problem during typhoons

Abstract

Typhoon Morakot, which formed on 2 August 2009, was the deadliest typhoon in Taiwan’s history, responsible for over 700 deaths on the island. During the typhoon evacuation process, one critical issue is how to efficiently distribute the evacuation trips to a limited number of shelters based on both spatial and temporal considerations. This paper proposes a modified entropy-based dynamic gravity model to reflect the spatial and temporal distribution of the evacuees and the shelters. A unique feature of the proposed model is that the entropy is explicitly incorporated within the travel cost constraints. The spatial and temporal relationships between evacuees and shelters can be reflected through the impedance functions and the discretized time intervals with better performance than the traditional model. A simulation-assignment model is applied to generate the zone-to-zone travel time. A calibration analysis based on the solution procedure is conducted for the Jiasian network, in Kaohsiung city, which was heavily affected by the Typhoon Morakot. The calibration results show that the modified entropy-based dynamic gravity model leads to better convergence patterns in the entropy values, higher travel cost coefficients, and lower average generalized trip costs than the traditional model, and is suitable for use with the evacuation plan during typhoons.