Abstract
Improved assessment methods for agriculture production systems are needed to identify the risks andopportunities related to global changes in climate, markets and policies, and the consequences of alternativeoptions of coping with and mitigating the changes. This paper presents the AGRISIMU modelling frameworkdeveloped for ex-ante assessment of alternative policy and management options meant to support farms andagrifood sector adapt to climate change, maintain biodiversity and reduce nutrient emissions under Finnishconditions. The modelling framework represents a novel approach to the integration of data and output fromseveral existing models like a dynamic regional sector model of Finnish agriculture, a farm-level optimisationmodel, a dynamic crop growth simulation model and models describing the nutrient dynamics in agriculturalsystems and a hydrological rainfall-runoff model. The framework is particularly aimed for Nordic conditions andto serve as an assessment tool that considers multiple factor and scale interactions.
Highlights
Global environmental change, liberalisation of trade and market changes, new agro-technologies and changing consumer preferences and societal demands, among others, drive the continuous dynamics and changes of agricultural systems all over the world
This paper presents the AGRISIMU modelling framework developed for ex-ante assessment of alternative policy and management options meant to support farms and agrifood sector adapt to climate change, maintain biodiversity and reduce nutrient emissions under Finnish conditions
The modelling framework represents a novel approach to the integration of data and output from several existing models like a dynamic regional sector model of Finnish agriculture, a farm-level optimisation model, a dynamic crop growth simulation model and models describing the nutrient dynamics in agricultural systems and a hydrological rainfall-runoff model
Summary
Liberalisation of trade and market changes, new agro-technologies and changing consumer preferences and societal demands, among others, drive the continuous dynamics and changes of. These trends include, among others; a clear shift within the EU from “pure” agricultural policies towards sustainability enhancing policies, agricultural innovations (new agro-technologies and farming systems) have to increasingly satisfy multiple objectives and the instrument of policy impact assessment (ex ante assessments) has been firmly introduced to enhance the quality of policy formulation since 2003, at the EU level (EC, 2005) These developments confirm the need for integrated and multi-scale approaches for ex ante assessments of the effects of policies and agricultural innovations in achieving sustainability objectives at the farm, regional and sector, and food system level. The framework is aimed at ex ante assessment of technologies and policies available for climate change mitigation, adaption and reducing nutrient emissions to ground and surface waters from agriculture in Nordic conditions
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