A Model-Based Estimate of Regional Wheat Yield Gaps and Water Use Efficiency in Main Winter Wheat Production Regions of China

Zunfu Lv,Xiaojun Liu,Weixing Cao,Yan Zhu

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06312-x

Zunfu Lv, Xiaojun Liu + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06312-x

Copy DOI

Abstract

Wheat production is of great importance for national food security and is greatly influenced by the spatial variation of climatic variables, soils, cultivars, etc. This study used WheatGrow and CERES-Wheat models integrated with a GIS to estimate winter wheat productivity, yield gap and water use in the main wheat production regions of China. The results showed that the potential wheat yield gradually increased from south to north and from west to east, with a spatial distribution consistent with the accumulated hours of sunshine. The gap between potential and actual yield varied from 382 to 7515 kg ha−1, with the highest values in Shanxi, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces and the lowest values in Sichuan province. The rainfed yield decreased gradually from south to north, roughly following the pattern of the ratio of accumulated precipitation to accumulated potential evapotranspiration. Under the scenario of autoirrigation, relatively high irrigation water use efficiency was found in western Shandong and southern Sichuan, as well as in northern Henan, Shanxi and Shaanxi. Furthermore, the limiting factors were analysed, and effective measures were suggested for improving regional winter wheat productivity. These results can be helpful for national policy making and water redistribution for agricultural production in China.

Highlights

By integrating a process-based growth model with Geographic Information System (GIS), various studies have evaluated the performance of regional simulations using site-scale crop models[15,16,17]
Prediction of regional wheat productivity and water use efficiency in the main wheat production regions of China could help us identify a balance between wheat yield and water use at the regional scale
The primary objectives of this study were (1) to estimate the regional productivities of winter wheat at different levels in the main production regions of China and to identify the spatial variations in wheat yield caused by climate variability; (2) to reveal the yield gap between potential yield and actual yield, and the degree to which wheat is limited by water in the main wheat production regions of China; and (3) to analyse irrigation water use efficiency in the main wheat production regions of China

Summary

Introduction

By integrating a process-based growth model with Geographic Information System (GIS), various studies have evaluated the performance of regional simulations using site-scale crop models[15,16,17]. Only a few studies have considered regional simulation of crop productivity in China because of the scarcity of input data[18], the WheatGrow model was scaled up from site to regional levels by integration with GIS19. The primary objectives of this study were (1) to estimate the regional productivities of winter wheat at different levels in the main production regions of China and to identify the spatial variations in wheat yield caused by climate variability; (2) to reveal the yield gap between potential yield and actual yield, and the degree to which wheat is limited by water in the main wheat production regions of China; and (3) to analyse irrigation water use efficiency in the main wheat production regions of China. The results should be useful for strategy development and policy making for regional wheat production and water redistribution

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion