A model-based analysis of climate change vulnerability of Pinus pinea stands under multiobjective management in the Northern Plateau of Spain

Abstract

Climate change is likely to heavily affect the provision of goods and services of Mediterranean forests. Our results strongly point out the need to develop adaptive strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change in order to assure the maintenance of the stands aiming their multifunctionality, more than their monetary revenues. Climate change in the Mediterranean region may heavily affect the provision of forest goods and services. Thus, options for adaptive forest management should be proposed. The aims of this study are to analyze the climate-related sensitivity of Pinus pinea forests in the Northern Plateau in Spain and to assess the vulnerability of multiobjective forest management to climate change by means of a simulation study, focusing on timber and cone production. The forest model PICUS v1.41, integrating a module for P. pinea cone and nut production, was used to simulate P. pinea stands at six site types under three forest management regimes (focus on timber, cones, and combined objectives) and five climate scenarios (current climate, four climate scenarios combining increases in temperature by +1 and +4 °C and decreases in precipitation by −10 and −30 %). Combined timber + cones management generated always the highest incomes from timber and cones. With the exception of the most productive site types, the combined timber + cone management produced also more timber volume than the cone and timber managements. Provisioning of ecosystem services decreased at all sites under all climate change scenarios. At very dry sites simulated, forests suffered from dieback events. Provisioning of ecosystem services decreased at all sites under all climate change scenarios analyzed and will be extremely limited on poor sites. Benefits and weaknesses of the assessment approach are discussed.