A Model to Predict Lake Water Colour

Abstract

AbstractThis study is an attempt to quantitatively determine variables of significance for predicting colour in small glacial lakes. Lake colour is an important variable in many lake ecological contexts. The data emanate from two extensive data‐sets from Sweden, one of which concerns 1456 lakes, and the other 91 more well‐suited lakes. Four year average values of lake colour were compared to catchment and morphometric parameters to help identify the processes which influence variability in colour between lakes. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating colour in lakes were formulated and tested. Various statistical tests were used to separate random influences from causal influences. Those “map parameters” with the most significant influence on colour were the theoretical lake water retention time, the percent of rocks, lakes and mires of the drainage area, the ratio between lake area and drainage area and the lake mean depth. Each model parameter provides only a limited explanation (statistical) of the variability in colour between lakes. The predictability of colour by these models can not be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area. The stability of the final model, which gives an r2‐value of 0.74, has been tested with positive results. The model allows lake colour to be estimated from knowledge of “geological” characteristics of the lake and its drainage area. The variability between lakes from other factors, such as temperature, precipitation and/or contamination of acidifying substances and nutrients, may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these “geological” factors.