A Model to Estimate Passenger Vehicle Fleet Composition, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Fuel Consumption

Abstract

A significant portion of funds in the United States for road maintenance and improvement are the levy of a fuel tax per gallon of fuel sold. The government mandated improvements in fuel efficiency of vehicles and the greater proportion of hybrid or nongasoline-powered vehicles expected to be used for passenger transportation are anticipated to adversely affect such revenues. In this study, readily available public domain data on new vehicle sales and survivability data are used to develop estimates of the future fleet composition by specific vehicle categories, vehicle miles traveled by the vehicle category, and fuel consumption by the vehicle category. It is then used to develop estimates. The model takes into consideration the emerging classes of hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles, which were not adequately captured in the historical data. This methodology could be used to support policy and operations analysis related to highway financing and infrastructure management.