Abstract
Poyang Lake collects the water of five rivers (Ganjiang River, Fuhe River, Xinjiang River, Raohe River and Xiushui River) in Jiangxi Province. Therefore, the rainfall of each area of Jiangxi Province has large influence on the water level of Poyang Lake. In order to facilitate the prediction of flooding in the basin and the warning of it beforehand, this paper aims to build a model on the relation between the rainfall in Poyang Lake basin and its water level by adopting the stepwise regression method, based on historical hydrological data. The F-hypothesis-test and the short-term predicting of water level in Poyang Lake show that the selected factors of our model are quite reasonable, and the model can predict very accurately.
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