A Model of Web Site Browsing Behavior Estimated on Clickstream Data

Abstract

Using the clickstream data recorded in Web server log files, the authors develop and estimate a model of the browsing behavior of visitors to a Web site. Two basic aspects of browsing behavior are examined: (1) the visitor's decisions to continue browsing (by submitting an additional page request) or to exit the site and (2) the length of time spent viewing each page. The authors propose a type II tobit model that captures both aspects of browsing behavior and handles the limitations of server log-file data. The authors fit the model to the individual-level browsing decisions of a random sample of 5000 visitors to the Web site of an Internet automotive company. Empirical results show that visitors' propensity to continue browsing changes dynamically as a function of the depth of a given site visit and the number of repeat visits to the site. The dynamics are consistent both with “within-site lock-in” or site “stickiness” and with learning that carries over repeat visits. In particular, repeat visits lead to reduced page-view propensities but not to reduced page-view durations. The results also reveal browsing patterns that may reflect visitors' time-saving strategies. Finally, the authors report that simple site metrics computed at the aggregate level diverge substantially from individual-level modeling results, which indicates the need for Web site analyses to control for cross-sectional heterogeneity.