Abstract
This paper describes a new model of the world oil market for Project LINK that integrates the effect of changes in the economic, geological and political environment. The model forecasts non-OPEC oil production using a new technique that quantifies the effect of geological, economic and political variables. The model forecasts real oil prices based on changes in market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Scenarios indicate that OPEC can influence the price for oil over the medium and long term by adjusting the rate at which it adds capacity. On the other hand, OPEC will find it difficult to influence oil prices by shutting in operable capacity.
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