A model of the New Zealand beef value chain: evaluating opportunities

Abstract

A model of the New Zealand beef value chain, from conception to export, was constructed. The model was parameterised at the national level so that issues and opportunities within the beef industry can be examined at a high level by researchers and industry participants. The model is capable of modelling changes in farm practice, market situations and the industry structure. To illustrate the integrative power and value of the model in evaluating change within the beef sector, three scenarios are presented and compared to the status quo: changes in land price; wider use of beef semen in the dairy industry; and introduction of a gene to improve net feed intake. From the three scenarios presented, it is apparent that land price dominates the ability of the NZ beef industry to create value in the long-run. Although behaviour, practices and technologies can contribute to overcoming this factor, such changes will need to be substantive - incremental improvements will not be sufficient. This model provides the basis for facilitating debate on the future of NZ's beef industry and how to ensure long-run profitability. Keywords: beef industry, scenario evaluation, beef systems, value chain model