Abstract
A model has been developed to predict litter size, lamb birthweight, perinatal lamb mortality and ewe weight change during the second part of pregnancy from different nutritional regimes. The model, which can contain 200 ewes, has been tested against field data from experimental flocks of Masham, Finn × Scottish Halfbred and Welsh Mountain ewes. The prediction of litter size from weight at mating is reasonable as is the prediction of mean lamb birthweight for a range of litter sizes. The model currently overestimates the weight of Finn × S. Halfbred singles, and underestimates ewe weight increase in late pregnancy and the mortality of lambs from some litter sizes. The problem of predictive accuracy is discussed and weighed against the task of collecting a great deal of data. The problem with a predictive reproductive model is that reproductive performance is a breed characteristic whereas nutritional demand can be predicted from size and physiological state.
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