Abstract
Abstract The possibility of applying the kinetic theory of aging of biological species published earlier by the authors of this work to assess and predict changes in the number of specific populations is evaluated. The populations of the USA, China and Russia, as well as the population of mice observed in the experiment "mouse paradise" of the American scientist John Calhoun are considered. To this end, a historically consistent analysis of the main previously proposed multi-scenario mathematical models describing demographic data and predicting the dynamics of the population was performed. The results of these models show a decrease in the population growth rate, a tendency toward a limit with an increase in historical time, the achievement of such a limit in some developed countries with a relatively high level of social security, a subsequent decrease in the number and further uncertainty of the final population outlook in the distant future. In addition, these models made it possible to establish that the observed population growth in developed countries is unambiguously accompanied by its aging - a relative predominant increase in the number of elderly people compared to the number of the younger generation (people are aging, the population of countries is aging). In this work, the assumption was made and confirmed that the dynamics of the aging of the population of the countries of the World corresponds to the dynamics of aging of a person of one generation and is mathematically described by the differential equation of the kinetic theory of aging of living systems of the same type with close values of the parameters. The biophysical meaning of the parameters of the kinetic equation reflects G. Selye's concept of the determining role of stress in human life and populations. An analysis of the changes in the numbers of the considered populations of humans and mice at various stages of their development is qualitatively commented on from the standpoint of comparative tension according to G. Selye. To assess the degree of aging of a biological object of one population in kinetic theory, the probability of death during life is selected as an indicator of aging. In this work, the probability of reaching the maximum population size was chosen as an indicator of the aging of a biological object of various populations. The published literature predicts various options for changing the population after reaching a maximum - maintaining the reached maximum level and decreasing to a certain limit, less than the maximum achieved. In this paper, based on an analysis of its results and an analogy with the complete degeneration of mice in the “mouse paradise” experiment, a conclusion is drawn about a hypothetically possible third variant of the limiting decrease in the population - its complete degeneration.
Highlights
All models are wrong, but some are useful
The population N(t) is calculated according to formulas shown in 7th column of Table 1, in which Di(t) functions and Nmi parameters contribute
The population of Russia itself, which by various names was consistently taken up different geographical territories, has suffered three jumps - in years 1914, 1941 and 1991, it is described by 4 segments of piecewise continuous functions
Summary
All models are wrong, but some are useful. Dr George E. To describe new demographic trends, Kremer introduced in his model of hyperbolic SunKrist Public Health Res J growth additional function of per capita product, that equilibrium value determines equilibrium population size, according to his concept of technological development [5]. Unlike extrapolation and analytical methods, cohort component method (classification by year of birth) based on use of demographic balance equation allows to get the total population, and its distribution by sex and age. According to the forecasts of demographers from the Expert Council under Russian Government, based on the report of the Higher School of Economics (HSE) “Population of Russia” of 2012, the population of Russia was estimated on 6 scenarios, and by optimistic scenario, in year 2060, population of Russia may be close to 150 million people, and pessimistic near 70 million people. The goal of research is to evaluate the possibility of applying mathematical model of aging of various biological species to describe changes in the population of different countries of the World [18]
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