A Model of Internal Migration: An Extended Neo-classical Migration Model and Evaluation of Regional Migration Determinants in Poland

Abstract

The goal of this paper was to carry out an empirical verifi cation of the theoretical model of internal migration and evaluate the infl uence of selected determinants on internal migration in Poland. In order to achieve this goal, an analysis of internal migration in Poland and an econometric analysis were carried out. The analysis was processed using data from 16 voivodeships (i.e. on the NUTS2 level); the analyzed period was from 2003 to 2017. Based on selected theoretical concepts of migration and present studies on internal migration, the theoretical model of internal migration was specifi ed. A total of fi ve models were estimated; fi rst, four models were estimated for all voivodeships and subsequently a GLS estimate was carried out with the so-called “strong region”. Results of the econometric analysis show that regional wage differences together with differences in the unemployment rate determined internal migration, which is in agreement with the assumptions of neo-classical economy. The positive relationship was indicated between the degree of migration and its delayed variable last year, which points simultaneously to the validity of the assumption of the theory of cumulative causation. The test of the dummy variable has shown that the degree of regional migration increased in the period of crisis. From the perspective of push and pull factors, pull factors in the host region were the following determinants: wage, demand for work in the industrial sector of the economy, and foreign human capital; on the contrary, push factors included the increasing unemployment rate, housing costs and the degree of urbanization.