Abstract
An earlier model of aflatoxin formation is developed further to study the implications of storage conditions on risk of aflatoxins in grains, seeds, forages, and foods. The effects of oxygen and carbon dioxide concentration on growth and toxigenesis are incorporated into the model, with toxigenesis being more sensitive to decreased oxygen and increased carbon dioxide than mold growth. A statistical sensitivity analysis is performed for three model parameters for which uncertainty is high—yield of aflatoxin per unit of cell growth, toxin degradation rate, and initial mold-cell mass. Aflatoxin levels were most sensitive to uncertainty in toxin yield. Faster rates of change in the transition between aerobic and anaerobic conditions inhibited toxin formation early in the storage period, but allowed greater mold growth and toxin formation during feedout.
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