A model for the dynamics of an annual plant population

Abstract

A model for the dynamics of a single species population of plants is proposed and its use demonstrated by the analysis of a simple example. The model incorporates the effects of microsite variation by allowing for individual differences in growth and death rates within each season. We demonstrate that an increase in the variance in individual growth rates may increase both the chances that a plant population will persist and the equilibrium size of that population. We also show that even if size-dependent death is occurring, it may not have a significant effect on the shape of the size frequency distribution. An extension of the model to multispecies communities of plants suggests an experimental procedure to determine whether competition is responsible for excluding a particular plant species from a community that appears otherwise to be suitable. A more detailed analysis of the model for a two-species community produces conditions for competitive coexistence reminiscent of those from the Lotka-Volterra competition equations. Another extension suggests that selection will favor those genotypes that maximize the product of germination probability and mass of seeds produced, if survivorship and growth are not substantially altered. Finally, an analog to r- and K-selection theory for animal populations is developed. Selection in low-density populations favors increasing growth rate, and in high-density populations favors minimizing the effect of neighbors on one's own growth rate.