Abstract
AbstractHigh‐latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0°C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost, which begins to thaw when the mean annual temperature rises above freezing. The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab has developed a new interactive geographical information systems (GIS) model to estimate the long‐term response of permafrost to changes in climate. An analytical approach is used for calculating both active layer thickness (ALT) and mean annual ground temperatures (MAGTs). When applied to long‐term (decadal or longer time scale) averages, this approach shows an accuracy of ±0.2–0.4°C for MAGTs and ±0.1–0.3 m for ALT calculations. The relative errors do not exceed 32% for ALT calculations, but typically they are between 10 and 25%. A spatial statistical analysis of the data from 32 sites in Siberia indicated a confidence level of 75% to have a deviation between measured and calculated MAGTs of 0.2–0.4°C. A detailed analysis has been performed for two regional transects in Alaska and eastern Siberia that has validated the use of the model. The results obtained from this analysis show that a more economical (in terms of computational time) analytical approach could be successfully used instead of a full‐scale numerical model in the regional and global scale analysis of permafrost spatial and temporal dynamics. This project has been a successful contribution to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment project. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.