A model for predicting mangrove forest dynamics under variable environmental conditions – A Case study of the Estuary of Dongnai – Saigon River system, Vietnam

Abstract

It is well-known that the mangrove ecosystems play important roles in coastal regions by their functions including, inter alia, supplying food and fuel wood for humans and natural protection against natural hazards. Moreover mangrove ecosystems have become one of the key factors in the context of global change and is thus becoming increasingly important. However, mangrove management is quite a difficult undertaking because of its geographic conditions and its complex bio-geological processes. Mathematical models that simulate the underlying processes governing the growth of mangrove in dependence of environmental factors such as salinity or elevation are effective tools for supporting the mangrove ecosystem management. In this thesis, an ecological model to simulate the development of mangrove attributes under influences of environmental factors is developed and applied to CanGio Mangrove Biosphere Reserve in Vietnam. This model includes two levels of scale: individual level and landscape level. Major results obtained in the thesis include: An ecological model for simulating the dynamics of mangroves, developed in MATLAB environment and applied to the CanGio Mangrove forest located on the estuary of Dongnai-Saigon River system, Vietnam - A procedure of applying hierarchy theory for estimating parameters for the model - A procedure of applying spatial point statistics to generate artificial data to add into the data set for parameter estimation - An up-scaling approach from the lower scale model (individual based) to a higher scale model (landscape model) - Simulation studies on the effect of sea level rise on mangrove dynamics.