A model for longitudinal data sets relating wind-damage probability to biotic and abiotic factors: a Bayesian approach

Kiyoshi Umeki,Eri Nabeshima,Marc David Abrams,Keisuke Toyama

doi:10.5424/fs/2019283-15200

Abstract

Aim of study: To develop a statistical model framework to analyze longitudinal wind-damage records while accounting for autocorrelation, and to demonstrate the usefulness of the model in understanding the regeneration process of a natural forest.Area of study: University of Tokyo Chiba Forest (UTCBF), southern Boso peninsula, Japan.Material and methods: We used the proposed model framework with wind-damage records from UTCBF and wind metrics (speed, direction, season, and mean stand volume) from 1905–1985 to develop a model predicting wind-damage probability for the study area. Using the resultant model, we calculated past wind-damage probabilities for UTCBF. We then compared these past probabilities with the regeneration history of major species, estimated from ring records, in an old-growth fir–hemlock forest at UTCBF.Main results: Wind-damage probability was influenced by wind speed, direction, and mean stand volume. The temporal pattern in the expected number of wind-damage events was similar to that of evergreen broad-leaf regeneration in the old-growth fir–hemlock forest, indicating that these species regenerated after major wind disturbances.Research highlights: The model framework presented in this study can accommodate data with temporal interdependencies, and the resultant model can predict past and future patterns in wind disturbances. Thus, we have provided a basic model framework that allows for better understanding of past forest dynamics and appropriate future management planning.Keywords: dendrochronology; tree regeneration; wind-damage probability model; wind disturbance.Abbreviations used: intrinsic CAR model (intrinsic conditional autoregressive model); MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo); 16 compass points = N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW, SW, WSW, W, WNW, NW, NNW (north, north-northeast, northeast, east-northeast, east, east-southeast, southeast, south-southeast, south, south-southwest, southwest, west-southwest, west, west-northwest, northwest, north-northwest, respectively); UTCBF (the University of Tokyo Chiba Forest).

Highlights

Wind is a major disturbance in the forests of the Japanese archipelago and in other parts of the world (e.g. Nakashizuka & Yamamoto, 1987; Peterson, 2000; Svoboda et al, 2014)
We have provided a basic model framework that allows for better understanding of past forest dynamics and appropriate future management planning
Wind causes damage to established trees and provides opportunities for trees to regenerate in natural forests (Abrams & Orwig, 1996; Abrams et al, 1999)

Summary

Introduction

Wind is a major disturbance in the forests of the Japanese archipelago and in other parts of the world (e.g. Nakashizuka & Yamamoto, 1987; Peterson, 2000; Svoboda et al, 2014). Nakashizuka & Yamamoto, 1987; Peterson, 2000; Svoboda et al, 2014). Many important features of natural forests, including structure, diversity, and dynamics, are influenced by wind disturbances Ulanova, 2000; Mitchell, 2013) These disturbances cause significant economic losses for forest managers Peterson, 2000). Understanding wind disturbance in a given forest is key to ecologically and economically sustainable management. It is critical that scientists and land managers have a comprehensive understanding of how significant wind events effect forests in various global regions

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion