A model for identifying patients who may not need intensive care unit admission

Abstract

Purpose This study presents a new model for identifying patients who might be too well to benefit from intensive care unit (ICU) care. Patients and Methods Intensive care unit admissions in 2002 to 2003 were used to develop a model to predict whether patients monitored on day one would receive one or more of 33 subsequent active life-supporting treatments. Accuracy was assessed by testing the model in a subsequent cohort of admissions in 2004 to 2006. We then assessed the frequency of active treatment among monitor patients at a low (<10%) risk for active life-supporting therapy on ICU day 1. Results Among 28 847 ICU monitor admissions in 2004 to 2006, 3153 patients (11.0%) were predicted to receive active treatment; 3296 (11.5%) actually did. There were 17 720 admissions with a low (<10%) risk for receiving subsequent active life-supporting treatment; 1238 (7.0%) received subsequent active treatment. Hospital mortality (2.5%) and mean ICU stay (1.8 days) suggests that most of these patients did not require ICU care. Conclusions The outcome for low-risk monitor patients suggest they may be too well to benefit from intensive care. The frequency of low-risk monitor admissions provides a measure of ICU resource use. Improved resource use and reduced costs might be achieved by strategies to provide care for these patients on floors or intermediate care units.