A Model for Hourly Solar Radiation Data Generation from Daily Solar Radiation Data Using a Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network

Tamer Khatib,Wilfried Elmenreich

doi:10.1155/2015/968024

Abstract

This paper presents a model for predicting hourly solar radiation data using daily solar radiation averages. The proposed model is a generalized regression artificial neural network. This model has three inputs, namely, mean daily solar radiation, hour angle, and sunset hour angle. The output layer has one node which is mean hourly solar radiation. The training and development of the proposed model are done using MATLAB and 43800 records of hourly global solar radiation. The results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy compared to some empirical and statistical models. Two error statistics are used in this research to evaluate the proposed model, namely, mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error. These values for the proposed model are 11.8% and −3.1%, respectively. Finally, the proposed model shows better ability in overcoming the sophistic nature of the solar radiation data.

Highlights

Solar energy is the portion of the sun’s energy available at the earth’s surface for useful applications, such as raising the temperature of water or exciting electrons in a photovoltaic cell, in addition to supplying energy to natural processes
An hourly solar radiation data set consisting of 43800 records (5 years) is used. 35040 records (4 years) are used in training the proposed generalized artificial neural network (GRNN) model
A generalized regression artificial neural network based model was presented for predicting hourly solar radiation using daily solar radiation

Summary

Introduction

Solar energy is the portion of the sun’s energy available at the earth’s surface for useful applications, such as raising the temperature of water or exciting electrons in a photovoltaic cell, in addition to supplying energy to natural processes. This energy is free, clean, and abundant in most places throughout the year. Solar radiation data provide information on how much of the sun’s energy strikes a location on the earth’s surface during a particular time period These data are needed for effective research into solar energy utilization [1]. Solar radiation can be modeled using different techniques

Objectives

Results

Conclusion