Abstract
Cost overruns and time delays are considered to be very important challenges for the majority of construction projects. These challenges are typically attributed to their associated risks. Due to the risky and uncertain nature of construction projects, an increasing amount of attention is given to estimating and overcoming cost overruns and time delays. New techniques are being developed to help project managers to contractually complete projects within cost and time constraints. The objective of this study was to develop a new qualitative and quantitative risk analysis model that can be employed for construction projects. The proposed model, which is based on a fuzzy logic tool, consists of two modules for assessing risk factors that affect the main construction activities and computing the expected cost overruns and time delays that are associated with these risks. Using numerous logical rules, the model applies the probability of occurrences and impacts of the risks on the cost and time of the main activities. The Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient tests are applied to verify and select a suitable membership function. Using four proposed membership functions, the results of these tests confirmed that the triangle membership function is suitable for the model. The model is verified by application to HVAC system activities in two actual construction projects, which serve as case studies. Two different methods are proposed and applied to quantify the cost overruns and time delays. The first method is based on determining the cost overruns and time delay values for each activity according to their weight in the system. Triple premise rules are proposed and applied in the second method, which is established to relate all activities. The results from the second method are more accurate compared with the first method based on actual data from the case study projects. In addition, the results demonstrated that the proposed model can be used to quantify the expected cost overrun and time delays in construction project activities and can be generalized and implemented in different construction activities.
Highlights
The construction industry is considered to be one of the most dynamic and risky sectors in all countries
The proposed new risk analysis model is developed by creating two different modules that address the main activities of construction projects and risks that affect them based on a fuzzy logic approach
Many other risk factors (Wrong selections that might cause future rectification, Poor-quality shop and coordination drawings, Lack of specialized laborers, Equipment sizes clash with provided spaces, and Selecting fittings that might not be compatible with the pipe thickness) are considered to be critical and comprise the first ten risk factors that cause cost overruns and time delays
Summary
The construction industry is considered to be one of the most dynamic and risky sectors in all countries. Uncertainty exists in the success of large-scale construction projects in terms of cost, time consumed by technological constraints, large numbers of stakeholders, long duration, numerous capital requirements, and improperly defined project scope (Gohar, Khanzadi, & Farmani, 2012). A major problem that occurs due to risks in most construction projects is the cost overruns or time delays that are incurred by a project, which cause an increase in the project cost or duration. The majority of previous research has investigated the effect of risk on the cost overruns and time delays of construction projects in general, whereas few studies have explored the impact of these risks on the construction project activities. Researchers give considerable attention to overcome these problems in the future by the development of theoretical models to evaluate the cost overruns and time delays resulted from risks affecting construction activities
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