A model for early death caused by radiation pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis after inhaling insoluble radioactive particles.

Abstract

Large radiation doses to the lung can cause early death from cardiopulmonary insufficiency resulting from radiation pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis. A model for early death following inhalation of insoluble radioactive particles is propose. The model is based on three assumptions: (1) early death results from damage to a cluster of cells from a large number of cell clusters at risk, (2) the dose that causes early death depends on how the radiation is delivered in time and (3) the cell clusters at risk to damage are equally sensitive ro radiation. Results from asymptotic theory of extreme values, along with biophysical considerations, suggest that the cumultive distribution function for the absorbed radiation dose to the production of pulmonary injury sufficient to cause early death is best estimated by the third asymptotic distribution without a threshold. This distribution function is identical to the Weibull cumulative distribution function. Data for Beagle dogs after inhaling relatively insoluble forms of alpha- or beta-gamma-emitting particles are shown to support the Weibull model.