A Model for Determining Fuzzy Evaluations of Partial Indicators of Availability for High-Capacity Continuous Systems at Coal Open Pits Using a Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

This paper presents a model for determining fuzzy evaluations of partial indicators of the availability of continuous systems at coal open pits using a neuro-fuzzy inference system. The system itself is a combination of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. The system availability is divided into partial indicators. By combining the fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks, a model is obtained that has the ability to learn and uses expert judgment for that learning. This paper deals with the ECC system (bucket wheel excavator-conveyor-crushing plant) of the open pit Drmno-Kostolac, which operates within the Electric Power Company of Serbia. The advantage of a model of this type is that it does not rely on the historical experiences of experts and usual predicted values for the fuzzy evaluation of partial indicators, which are based on the assumption that similar systems affect availability in a similar way. The fuzzy evaluation of partial indicators is based on historical data for the specific system for which the model was created. As such, it can more accurately predict continuous systems availability on the basis of expert evaluations in the appropriate time period. Another advantage of this model is that the availability is estimated on a quarterly basis, which gives a more accurate view because it uses a smaller time period with more similar characteristics and, thus, includes certain external influences which are related to the quarterly meteorological conditions.