Abstract
Fertility governs central and positive role in the study of human population dynamics. The age-specific fertility pattern has a distinct shape for all human population, to describe which, a number of parametric models have been proposed. The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model for fitting age-specific fertility rate pattern of various states of India. Skew-logistic probability density function is used for building the model. The real data, to which this model has been fitted, is obtained from National Family Health Survey- III (2005-2006). The used model is very flexible in nature and hence is useful for modeling diverse fertility patterns which are observed across different states of India. The parameters of the model have been estimated through the method of non-linear least square. By fitting the model it is observed that the proposed model fits well on the fertility pattern for almost each state of the country.
Highlights
Fertility is one of the three main demographic features for any population
Some of them were interested in finding the possible factors which govern fertility pattern such as age at marriage, gender preference, education, nutritional status of women, contraceptive use, current family size, desired family size, occupation, religion etc. and some were interested in finding estimates of direct (Crude Birth Rate, Age Specific Fertility Rate, General Fertility Rate, Total Fertility Rate, Gross Reproduction Rate, Net Reproduction Rate) and indirect measures of fertility
It is clearly observed from the tables and figures that the estimated values from the proposed model fits the data of observed fertility pattern for almost all Indian states considered
Summary
Fertility is one of the three main demographic features for any population (the others being mortality and migration). Fertility represents the actual level of reproduction of a population based on the number of live births to a woman. Fertility levels are the determinant of the age structure of population which in turn governs the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the population. Some of them were interested in finding the possible factors which govern fertility pattern such as age at marriage, gender preference, education, nutritional status of women, contraceptive use, current family size, desired family size, occupation, religion etc. The other way of measuring fertility is using mathematical functions (models) to assess the fertility pattern of any population by which one can reflect the true picture of it for any population. Modeling is useful in analyzing fertility pattern as well as it provides population projections, which might be helpful in framing government policies
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