A model-based scenario analysis of the impact of forest management and environmental change on the understorey of temperate forests in Europe

Abstract

The temperate forest understorey is rich in terms of vascular plant diversity and plays a vital functional role. Given the sensitivity of this forest layer to forest management and global environmental change and the limited knowledge on its long-term dynamics, there is a need for decision support systems that can guide temperate forest managers to optimize their management in terms of understorey outcomes. In this study, using understorey resurvey data collected from across temperate Europe, we developed Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to predict four understorey properties based on forest management and environmental change data, and implemented this model in a web-based tool as a prototype understorey Decision Support System (DSS). Using seventy-two combined climate change, nitrogen(N) deposition and forest management scenarios, applied to two case study regions in Europe, we predicted temperate forest understorey biodiversity dynamics between 2020 and 2050. A sensitivity analysis subsequently allowed to quantify the relative importance of canopy opening, N deposition and climate change on understorey dynamics. Our study showed that, regardless of regions, understorey richness and the proportion of forest specialists generally decreased among most scenarios, but the proportion of woody species and the understorey vegetation total cover increased. Climate warming, N deposition, and increases in canopy openness all influenced understorey dynamics. Climate warming will shift composition towards a selection of forest generalists and woody species, but a less open canopy could mitigate this shift by increasing the proportion of forest specialists. The case studies also showed that these responses can be context-dependent, especially in terms of responses to N deposition.