A MODEL-BASED DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR GREY MOULD PREDICTION

Abstract

Grey mould (Botrytis cinerea) is one of the most severe diseases in greenhouse crops. For its control, humidity is kept low and chemical and biological control agents are used. An early warning system for disease outbreak likelihood would help to improve B. cinerea management. In greenhouses with model-based climate control there is scope for automatic humidity control to manage B. cinerea in trade-offs with other production parameters, such as energy saving and product quality. In the present paper a mathematical simulation model for Botrytis was developed as basis for greenhouse climate control. The model was designed from literature studies and implemented in a software simulation environment. The model consists of two components representing (1) crop microclimate and (2) disease development, including the complete life cycle of Botrytis cinerea from mycelium and spore development to sporulation and spore deposition on the susceptible plant parts. The model calculates durations of leaf wetness and leaf dryness in order to predict the success rate of spore penetration and thus infection. The model was parameterised for the cut flower Gerbera. The model was connected to a greenhouse climate simulator and in general form. Simulations were performed for a standard glass greenhouse located in The Netherlands using a reference climate year. The developed model for Botrytis control presents a novel design that creates a possible basis for a future climate regime to control Botrytis in greenhouses with a strong reduction of chemical biocide use.