A Model-Based Assessment for the Ability of National Nature Reserves to Conserve the Picea Species in China under Predicted Climate Conditions

Abstract

Climate change has a profound impact on the conservation and management of the Picea species, and establishing more nature reserves would be an effective way to conserve wild species in general. Based on a novel computational method using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential geographical distribution of species and a spatial decision support system, the planning process could predict the future distribution of the Picea species and thus select appropriate nature reserves. In this research, we utilized systematic conservation planning to define priority conservation areas for the Picea species in China according to future climate predictions. We hypothesized that: (1) the distribution of the Picea species could be changed under predicted climate conditions in China; (2) the current national nature reserves had sufficient capacity to conserve Picea species under predicted climate conditions in China; and (3) there were still deficiencies in the planned conservation for the Picea species based on predicted climate predictions in China. The results of a spatial analysis showed that the predicted climate would have an impact on the area of distribution of the Picea species. Current nature reserves have a strong potential to conserve the Picea species. However, the conservation of the Picea species in the existing nature reserves was not adequate. There were still many Picea specimens outside the reserve that would be threatened. This research systematically improved the research on the Picea species, and it also scientifically identified the suitable growth and conserved areas of the Picea species in China to provide an empirical basis for the conservation and management of the Picea species.