A model based approach to predict stream travel time using public transit as probes

Abstract

Travel time is one of the most preferred traffic information by a wide variety of travelers. Travel time information provided through variable message signs at the roadside could be viewed as a traffic management strategy designed to encourage drivers to take an alternate route. At the same time, it could also be viewed as a traveler information service designed to ensure that the driver has the best available information based on which they can make travel decisions. In an Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) context, both the Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) and the Advance Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) rely on accurate travel time prediction along arterials or freeways. In India, currently there is no permanent system of active test vehicles or license plate matching techniques to measure stream travel time in urban arterials. However, the public transit vehicles are being equipped with Global Positioning System (GPS) devices in major metropolitan cities of India for providing the bus arrival time information at bus stops. However, equipping private vehicles with GPS to enable the stream travel time measurement is difficult due to the requirement of public participation. The use of the GPS equipped buses as probe vehicles and estimating the stream travel time is a possible solution to this problem. The use of public transit as probes for travel time estimation offers advantages like frequent trips during peak hours, wide range network coverage, etc. However, the travel time characteristics of public transit buses are influenced by the transit characteristics like frequent acceleration, deceleration and stops due to bus stops besides their physical characteristics. Also, the sample size of public transit is less when compared to the total vehicle population. Thus mapping the bus travel time to stream travel time is a real challenge and this difficulty is more complex in traffic conditions like in India with its heterogeneity and lack of lane discipline. As a pilot study, a model based approach using the Kalman filtering technique to predict stream travel time from public transit is carried out in the present study. Since it is only a pilot study, only twowheeled vehicles have been considered as they constitute a major proportion in the study area. The prediction scheme is corroborated using field data collected by carrying GPS units in two-wheelers traveling along with the buses under consideration. The travel time estimates from the model were compared with the manually observed travel times and the results are encouraging.