A Mixed Modeling Approach to Predict the Effect of Environmental Modification on Species Distributions

Francesco Cozzoli,Tjeerd J Bouma,Menno Eelkema,Vincent Escaravage,Peter M J Herman,Tom Ysebaert,Kay C Vopel

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0089131

Abstract

Human infrastructures can modify ecosystems, thereby affecting the occurrence and spatial distribution of organisms, as well as ecosystem functionality. Sustainable development requires the ability to predict responses of species to anthropogenic pressures. We investigated the large scale, long term effect of important human alterations of benthic habitats with an integrated approach combining engineering and ecological modelling. We focused our analysis on the Oosterschelde basin (The Netherlands), which was partially embanked by a storm surge barrier (Oosterscheldekering, 1986). We made use of 1) a prognostic (numerical) environmental (hydrodynamic) model and 2) a novel application of quantile regression to Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to simulate both the realized and potential (habitat suitability) abundance of four macrozoobenthic species: Scoloplos armiger, Peringia ulvae, Cerastoderma edule and Lanice conchilega. The analysis shows that part of the fluctuations in macrozoobenthic biomass stocks during the last decades is related to the effect of the coastal defense infrastructures on the basin morphology and hydrodynamics. The methodological framework we propose is particularly suitable for the analysis of large abundance datasets combined with high-resolution environmental data. Our analysis provides useful information on future changes in ecosystem functionality induced by human activities.

Highlights

The influence of human activities on Earth’s ecosystems has caused changes in global and local scale species distributions [1]
Habitat suitability fluctuates less in time than realized abundances and it is generally preferred as a reference parameter for spatial management strategies [11]
In this paper we propose a novel integration of numerical hydrodynamic models and SDMs to investigate the response of four common macrozoobenthic species to anthropogenic modifications of their habitat

Summary

Introduction

The influence of human activities on Earth’s ecosystems has caused changes in global and local scale species distributions [1]. SDMs usually focus on the ‘true’ responses to the known explanatory variable(s), excluding the variability induced by subsidiary factors. For this reason, they often have been restricted to a partial description of the distribution only, such as modeling of the maximum or binary modeling of presence/absence. They often have been restricted to a partial description of the distribution only, such as modeling of the maximum or binary modeling of presence/absence This approach expresses species distributions in terms of potential niche or habitat suitability [10]. There is a need for forecasting models that represent the entire probability distribution of abundance (density, biomass) values at a particular combination of environmental factors [12]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion