A Mixed Logit Approach to Study Preferences for Safety on Alpine Roads

Abstract

This paper presents a mixed logit approach to the valuation of reductions in mortality risk on Alpine roads. In addition to common road accidents, users of these roads face risks from natural hazards such as avalanches and rockfalls. Moreover, the individual risk of road users varies with the frequency of their exposure. Drawing on choice experimental data of frequently exposed respondents from a mountainous region and less frequently exposed respondents from a city in Switzerland, we are able to estimate the value of statistical life (VSL). Furthermore, we explore how respondents differ in their individual willingness-to-pay depending on exposure and other individual characteristics. Our estimates of the VSL in the context of fatal accidents on Alpine roads are in the range of CHF 6.0–7.8 million (€3.9–5.1 million). We find the VSL to be dependent on socio-economic and perceptional factors but to be not significantly altered by the type of hazard. These findings imply that the VSL might be adjusted to account for heterogonous risk preferences of different societal groups, but there is no evidence of a ‘dread’ premium for natural hazards.