A Miscalculated Risk: Austria-Hungary, the “Blank Cheque” and the Origins of the First World War

Abstract

This paper examines whether Austria-Hungary would have gone to war with Serbia and thereby initiated the First World War if it had not received the “blank cheque” from Germany on July 5th and 6th, 1914. The article begins by exploring political debates over war against Serbia in Austria-Hungary’s Ministerial Council following of the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, as informed by the diverse personal and domestic interests of the council’s members. It then analyzes the probability of Austro-Hungarian victory in a hypothetical invasion of Serbia without German support. Possibilities of a peaceful resolution of the assassination crisis that may have been achieved without German obstruction are also taken into account. Overall, this paper concludes that an Austro-Hungarian invasion of Serbia in 1914 becomes unlikely without the blank cheque. It also offers insights into the role of diplomatic support in emboldening risk-taking by states past and present, even when major wars are possible. The extent to which such support is unconditionally guaranteed in alliances continues to be an important factor when de-escalating international crises today.