Abstract

PIP: The case of Cuba provides social scientists with reasonably good information on urbanization policies and their implementation in 1 developing country committed to socialism. The demographic context is considered, and Cuban efforts to eliminate the rural-urban contradiction and to redefine the role of Havana are described. The impact of these policies is analyzed in terms of available data on urbanization patterns since January 1959 when the revolutionaries marched into Havana. Prerevolutionary urbanization trends are considered. Fertility in Cuba has declined simultaneously with mortality and even more rapidly. Projections assume a 1.85% annual growth rate, resulting in a population of nearly 15 million by the year 2000. Any estimate regarding the future trend in population growth must depend on prognosis of general living conditions and of specific government policies regarding contraception, abortion, female labor force participation, and child care facilities. If population growth in Cuba has been substantial, but less dramatic than that of many other developing countries, urban growth presents a similar picture. Cuba's highest rate of growth of the population living in urban centers with a population over 20,000, in any intercensal period during the 20th century, was 4.1%/year for 1943-1953. It dropped to 3.0% in the 1953-1970 period. Government policies achieved a measure of success in stemming the tide of rural-urban migration, but the aims of the revolutionary leadership went further. The objective was for urban dwellers to be involved in agriculture, and the living standards of the rural population were to be raised to approximate those of city dwellers. The goal of urbanizing the countryside found expression in a program designed to construct new small towns which could more easily be provided with services. A slowdown in the growth of Havana, and the concomitant weakening of its dominant position, was intended by the revolutionary leadership. Offical policies have been enunciated that connect the reduction in the dominance of Havana with the slowdown in urban growth and the urbanization of the countryside. Evidence is presented which suggests achievements along all of these dimensions, but by 1970 they were, as yet, quite limited.

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