A Mile Trail Run Can Predict Performance for a 5K Trail Race

Abstract

PURPOSE: A common desire and strategy for many runners is to predict race time off of a shorter time trial. It is unknown whether these strategies apply to trail races. The purpose of this study was to determine if a 1-mile trail run could predict performance on a 5K trail race. It was hypothesized that a significant correlation would be present between a timed 1-mile run and 5K run time. METHODS: Thirteen participants [Female: 3, Male: 10, Age:23±5 y, Height:175±9 cm, Mass:74±12 kg, BMI: 24±4] reported to the trailhead (Practice Loop, Three Peaks Recreation Area, Cedar City, UT) and completed a 1-mile and a 5K timed trail run one day apart in a counterbalanced order. Elevation at the trailhead was 1,641 m (5,385 feet) with a rise of 17 m (56 feet) throughout the marked 1-mile course, and 61 m (201 feet) on the 5K course. Testing was completed between 1500 and 1700h on both days. Environmental measures of temperature (23.9°- 25.6° C; 75°-78° F), humidity (13%-15%), and wind speed (4-9 mph) varied throughout the testing days. Data were analyzed using a Pearson product moment correlation coefficient with significance accepted at the p≤0.05 level. RESULTS: A significant correlation was observed between 1-mile time and 5K performance (r=0.987, p=0.0001, R2=0.974). The equation to predict 5K time from the mile time trial was: 5K time (expressed as a decimal) = 4.2881*mile time (expressed as a decimal) - 4.5521. The average running velocity during the 1-mile trail run was 3.94±0.9 m.sec-1, and 3.4±1.0 m.sec-1 for the 5K. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that a 1-mile trail run time trial can be used to predict performance for a 5K trail race. Also, based on these data, 5K trail running velocity is approximately 15% less than during a 1-mile trail run bout.