Abstract
The manpower planning process includes forecasting the future demand for manpower and the future internal supply of manpower and then developing action plans which will balance supply and demand. Many of the models which exist for forecasting internal supply are for periods of one year or longer, which makes them inappropriate for many project planning and short term human resource management applications. This paper presents an easily implemented short-range (12-month horizon) model for forecasting internal supply. Time series analysis techniques are used to identify seasonal patterns and trends which exist in the determinants of internal supply. These are employed in the development of an internal supply forecast at both the aggregate firm level and at the individual skill group level. Feasibility of the model is demonstrated using empirical data. Output of the model is useful for further manpower planning.
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