A methodology to quantify the risk propagation of hazardous events for ship grounding accidents based on directed CN

Abstract

An innovative methodology is proposed to address the coupling and correlation involved in the hazardous events contributing to ship grounding accidents. Based on the principle of a directed complex network (CN), the advantages of event tree analysis (ETA), the improved K-shell algorithm and the susceptible infected recovered (SIR) model are integrated into this methodology. The ETA is first applied to extract event chains involved in each accident report (39 reports in this study), resulting in the development of a directed CN, which is analysed from two perspectives: criticality calculation with the static application of the improved K-shell decomposition algorithm and sensitivity analysis by simulating SIR model. The risk propagation capacity of each objective node is evaluated by a combination of criticality and sensitivity. The results show that the proposed methodology is applicable for evaluating the risk propagation capacity of hazardous events. The trigger events located at the beginning of event chains should not receive too much attention, while the control of contributing events is essential for accident prevention. In addition, the criticality and sensitivity of the objective node are not always consistent; therefore, the strategies defending the risk propagation process may vary according to the different classifications of hazardous events.