A methodology to explore the impact of policy changes on insurgencies

Abstract

This study proposes a methodology to model the flow of a population into and out of an insurgency as a way of assessing counter-insurgency strategy and government policy. The causes, means and capacity of insurgencies are fluid, but the influence of government policy can be constant. Therefore, exploring the impact of policy change on insurgencies is valid and useful. This research provides a historical analysis of insurgency to provide a set number of variables that affect population behaviour in what are traditional insurgency activities. It then progresses to a specific case study, Colombia, a state that is now waging its insurgency as part of the Global War on Terrorism. A system dynamics approach will capture the model and represent the complex interdependencies of the variables influencing the system. The result is a model that portrays the effects of policy change in the state of Colombia.