A Methodology to Evaluate the Vulnerability of the Natural Gas Supply Chain Based on Set Pair Analysis and Markov Chain

Abstract

In this study, a methodology to evaluate and predict the vulnerability of the natural gas supply chain is proposed, and both the dynamics and stochasticity of the natural gas supply chain are considered. In the methodology, the evaluation system of the vulnerability is established firstly based on the definition of the vulnerability of the natural gas supply chain, and the evaluation system is composed of 12 evaluation indicators that cover the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the natural gas supply chain. Then, a combination weighting method based on the analytic hierarchy process method and entropy weighting method is employed to determine the weight of each indicator. Finally, the dynamic evaluation and prediction models of the vulnerability of the natural gas supply chain are developed based on the set pair analysis and Markov chain. Furthermore, the methodology is applied to evaluate and predict the vulnerability of the natural gas supply chain in China. According to the evaluation results, the vulnerability level in the year of 2021 is relatively vulnerable, and the natural gas supply chain in China was relatively stable in the last 10 years, but it is developing toward a more vulnerable trend. Moreover, some suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of China’s natural gas supply chain are proposed as well.