A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC

Abstract

Large-scale reactor simulation often requires the use of Monte Carlo calculation techniques to estimate important reactor parameters. One drawback of these Monte Carlo calculation techniques is they inevitably result in some uncertainty in calculated quantities. The present study includes parametric uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) on the Advanced Test Reactor Critical (ATRC) facility housed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and addresses some complications due to Monte Carlo uncertainty when performing these analyses. This approach for UQ/SA includes consideration of Monte Carlo code uncertainty in computed sensitivities, consideration of uncertainty from directly measured parameters and a comparison of results obtained from brute-force Monte Carlo UQ versus UQ obtained from a surrogate model. These methodologies are applied to the uncertainty and sensitivity of keff for two sets of uncertain parameters involving fuel plate geometry and fuel plate composition.Results indicate that the less computationally-expensive method for uncertainty quantification involving a linear surrogate model provides accurate estimations for keff uncertainty and the Monte Carlo uncertainty in calculated keff values can have a large effect on computed linear model parameters for parameters with low influence on keff.