A methodology for parameter estimation in system dynamics models using artificial intelligence

Abstract

AbstractMultiple tools exist for separately simulating and estimating the parameters of system dynamics models. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been increasingly used to estimate the parameters of system dynamics models. The development of modeling tools and advanced environments has resulted in great benefits to the community at large. The incorporation of AI tools into system dynamics presents opportunities for expanding on current decision‐making methods. As systems become complex, the need to incorporate evidence‐based data‐driven methods increases. By integrating system dynamics tools and facilitating AI and system dynamics simulation in an integrated environment, model parameters can be estimated with the latest data, and the integrity of the model can be retained effectively. This provides an advantage to the efficiency and capabilities of the system dynamics model and its analysis. This paper presents a general methodology to incorporate regression AI into system dynamics models for simulation and analysis. To demonstrate the validity of the methodology, a case study involving a susceptible‐infected‐recovered model and empirical data from the COVID‐19 pandemic is performed using support vector machines (SVMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and random forests.