Abstract

We have proposed a methodology to assess the robustness of underground tunnels against potential failure. This involves developing vulnerability functions for various qualities of rock mass and static loading intensities. To account for these variations, we utilized a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique coupled with the finite difference code FLAC3D, to conduct two thousand seven hundred numerical simulations of a horseshoe tunnel located within a rock mass with different geological strength index system (GSIs) and subjected to different states of static loading. To quantify the severity of damage within the rock mass, we selected one stress-based (brittle shear ratio (BSR)) and one strain-based failure criterion (plastic damage index (PDI)). Based on these criteria, we then developed fragility curves. Additionally, we used mathematical approximation techniques to produce vulnerability functions that relate the probabilities of various damage states to loading intensities for different quality classes of blocky rock mass. The results indicated that the fragility curves we obtained could accurately depict the evolution of the inner and outer shell damage around the tunnel. Therefore, we have provided engineers with a tool that can predict levels of damages associated with different failure mechanisms based on variations in rock mass quality and in situ stress state. Our method is a numerically developed, multi-variate approach that can aid engineers in making informed decisions about the robustness of underground tunnels.

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