A methodology for assessing wildfire hazard in Sweden – The first step towards a multi-hazard assessment method

Abstract

Flooding and wildfires are two common natural hazards in Sweden to which the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) must be prepared to respond to. In light of potential increases in these hazards, the Extreme-Index project aims to develop such a multi-hazard tool for Sweden. In this paper, a modular multi-hazard framework is presented. The first module of the multi-hazard methodology that is developed and presented relates to wildfires in Sweden. The wildfire risk assessment framework has been exemplified using a small community in Ljungby municipality in the south of Sweden. The community has been chosen as it has a significant portion of its population living in the wildland urban interface. The hazard assessment of the area builds on historical wildfire activity and burn probability throughout Sweden. The exposure assessment relies on the identification of fuel types that are present within different zones surrounding structures. The methodology provides a basis for the FRS to identify particularly exposed structures for further vulnerability assessment and mitigation and for the identification of the need for their own capability development in the future. Future versions of the framework will include flooding, with the two hazards being incorporated into an “Extreme-Index”.