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Abstract
Investigations into tropical cyclone mitigation, especially those made by Ross Hoffman, are introduced in the beginning to elicit the weather control version of 4-Dimensional Variation (4D-Var) as a nonlinear optimal control technique and the theory of natural cybernetics. Subsequently, the concept of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations (CNOP) and the existing connotation of natural cybernetics related to weather modification are briefly presented. After that, the primary application of CNOP, improved by comparison with 4D-Var, are stressed upon, which can make use of the observational data during the controlling process, thereby having some advantages over 4D-Var in weather control. The technique may be called ‘nonlinear optimal forcing variation calculus (NOFV)’ or ‘nonlinear optimal forcing perturbation (NOFP)’ approach, which could make controlling as close to the observation as possible. Moreover, two other applications of CNOP, i.e. inversion of the initial perturbation evolving into a tropical cyclone and the solution of perturbation yielding maximum vertical wind shear with CNOP, are further investigated. Subsequently, the application of natural cybernetics to tropical cyclone mitigation and control, is analyzed in comparison with precipitation enhancement. Meanwhile, the means to realize tropical cyclone control and mitigation are synoptically reviewed. The investigation and analysis show that CNOP approach and natural cybernetics are useful in tropical cyclone mitigation and control.
Highlights
Tropical cyclone (TC), an extreme meteorological event and marine weather phenomena with great destructive power, has been always been watched closely in all social circles, it has only been in terms of its natural intensity evolution and travel route forecast
We started with the work carried out by Ross Hoffman to elicit the nonlinear optimal control technique and natural cybernetics
We briefly introduced the concept of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations (CNOP) and the existing connotation of natural cybernetics related to weather modification
Summary
Tropical cyclone (TC), an extreme meteorological event and marine weather phenomena with great destructive power, has been always been watched closely in all social circles, it has only been in terms of its natural intensity evolution and travel route forecast. Peng Yuehua et al.: A Methodology for Applying Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation and Natural Cybernetics to Tropical Cyclone Mitigation [1, 2] to mitigate hurricane during 1962–1983. Scientists have not understood the intensity and internal structure of tropical cyclones so far In their ideal numerical simulations, the control vectors were changed across all layers, in the outfield experiment, Hoffman concentrated only on changing the environmental field surrounding the TC, because to change the structure of TC and shift its route or intensity, required accurate structure simulation and data assimilation. From a new point of view, weather modification can incorporate traditional cloud dynamics, micro physics and weather modification theory with recent and rigorous cybernetics and programming methodology It takes advantage of the existing achievements of meteorology and augments some new methods, such as feedback control, optimal programming, etc., opening up a quantitative and verifiable research technique to control weather.
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