Abstract
We propose a methodological approach for a comprehensive and total probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (TotPTHA), in which many different possible source types concur to the definition of the total tsunami hazard at given target sites. In a multi-hazard and multi-risk perspective, the approach allows us to consider all possible tsunamigenic sources (seismic events, slides, volcanic eruptions, asteroids, etc.). In this respect, we also formally introduce and discuss the treatment of interaction/cascade effects in the TotPTHA analysis and we demonstrate how the triggering events may induce significant temporary variations in short-term analysis of the tsunami hazard. In two target sites (the city of Naples and the island of Ischia in Italy) we prove the feasibility of the TotPTHA methodology in the multi—source case considering near submarine seismic sources and submarine mass failures in the study area. The TotPTHA indicated that the tsunami hazard increases significantly by considering both the potential submarine mass failures and the submarine seismic events. Finally, the importance of the source interactions is evaluated by applying a triggering seismic event that causes relevant changes in the short-term TotPTHA.
Highlights
The scope of this study is to present a methodology for the total probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (T otP T HA) produced by multiple tsunamigenic sources in the framework of the ByM uR
In an exemplified application we illustrate the methodology at two target sites focusing the analysis on: (1) the multi-hazard approach and (2) the long- and short-term hazard assessments
We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed comprehensive T otP T HA to treat the interactions among different tsunami hazards
Summary
In recent years the P robabilistic T sunami Hazard Assessment (P T HA) has been proposed in different areas of the globe using different methodologies that can be grouped in:. Multi-hazard and multi-risk assessments are new approaches ([39,40]) that allow the comparison of different hazards and risks and their interactions, accounting for multiple events that may exponentially increase the impact of disasters on society Both the comparison of different sources and the interaction/cascade effects are among the most important factors of multi-hazard and multi-risk assessments, as treated in several recent analyses ([39,41]). In this perspective, the P T HA represents a multi-source problem because of the different type of sources (earthquakes, landslides and volcanic eruptions) to be considered in a multi-risk framework (natural, industrial, nuclear, coastal infrastructure risk) since consequences are highly impacting. The applicability of the T otP T HA methodology is exemplified for the city of N aples and the Island of Ischia (Italy), accounting for (1) different types of sources (multi-source approach); and (2) specific triggering event (source interaction approach)
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