Abstract
Clues derived from the locations connected to violent repeat criminal offenders, such as serial murderers, rapists, and arsonists, can be of significant assistance to law enforcement. Such information allows police departments to focus their activities, geographically prioritize suspects, and to concentrate saturation or directed patrolling efforts in those zones where the criminal predator is most likely to be active. By examining spatial data connected to a series of crime sites, this methodological model generates a choropleth probability map that indicates the areas most likely to be associated to the offender—home, work site, or travel routes. Based on the Brantingham theoretical structure and the routine activities approach, the model goes beyond simple cluster or centroid analysis by employing specific serial murder research, overlapping modified Pareto functions, and Manhattan distances. The methodology is also sensitive to the target/victim opportunity backcloth, landscape issues, and problems of spatial “outliers.”
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