A Methodological Framework to Retrospectively Obtain Downscaled Precipitation Estimates over the Tibetan Plateau

Kang He,Hongfen Teng,Ziqiang Ma,Junfeng Xu,Asim Biswas,Zhou Shi,Wu Yu,Ruiying Zhao

doi:10.3390/rs10121974

Abstract

Long-term precipitation estimates with both finer spatial resolution and better quality are vital and highly needed in various related fields. Numerous downscaling algorithms have been investigated based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), to obtain precipitation data with finer resolution (~1 km). However, this research was restricted by the time span of the TMPA dataset, as the starting time of TMPA was 1998. In this study, a new methodological framework incorporating wavelet coherence and Cubist was proposed to retrospectively obtain downscaled precipitation estimates (DS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), based on TMPA and ground observations, in 1990s. The correlations and similarities of precipitation patterns between the target years, from 1990 to 1999, and reference years, from 2000 to 2013, were firstly determined using wavelet coherence based on ground observations. Following this, the TMPA data in the reference years were regarded as the reference in the corresponding target years, which were adopted to be downscaled using Cubist models and land surface variables, to obtain the DS in the target years. We found that the DS showed continuous trends, which corresponded well with the ground observations. Additionally, the performances of the DS were better than those of the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data over the TP. Therefore, this methodological framework has great potential for obtaining precipitation estimates for the period of the 1990s for which TMPA data is inaccessible.

Highlights

Precipitation is commonly regarded as one of the most important variables in hydrology, meteorology, climate change, etc. [1]
The Trends and Mutation of Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) Figure 3 presented the statistical curves of the UF and UB, using the SQ–MK test based on
The UF and UB curves were intersected in 1984, the intersection was inside the confidence interval, which indicated that the precipitation patterns over the TP were changed in 1984

Summary

Introduction

Precipitation is commonly regarded as one of the most important variables in hydrology, meteorology, climate change, etc. [1]. Long-term precipitation information is in great need in related scientific and application fields. It is a great challenge to monitor and measure precipitation amounts and trends in particular in areas with complex terrain, for instance the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The rain gauge network is significantly scarce over the TP due to its harsh environment and complex terrain [5], which makes it difficult to obtain spatially explicit precipitation information over the plateau. Strong variability in physiography can lead to localized variations in climatic conditions, needing much more information on the critical climatic variables, i.e., precipitation. To investigate the regional climate fluctuations in the TP, long-term precipitation estimates with both finer resolutions (~1 km) and better accuracy are in great need

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion