A methodological framework for modeling sustainability visions: A case study of groundwater management in Faizpur distributary, Pakistan

Abstract

Over the last two decades, participatory modeling has been advocated as an effective method towards integrated, adaptive, and collaborative water resources management. However, in developing countries, such as Pakistan, its adaptation is limited due to high cost, time, and technical skills of stakeholders. The proposed research aims to develop a stepwise participatory modeling framework with special focus to the problem of groundwater depletion in the Faizpur distributary of Bari Doab basin, Pakistan. Currently, due to absence of a well define groundwater management policy together with low social awareness level, groundwater sustainability is at risk in term of its quality and quantity. For participatory modeling individual causal loop diagrams were developed with potential stakeholders, followed by a merged causal loop diagram to represent a holistic view of the complete system. The final merged diagram helps in understanding different system processes and allows for a more comprehensive qualitative assessment of stakeholder proposed policies. Among other proposed policies (e.g., revise cropping pattern, gray water reuse, and construction of dams) water pricing is found to be the most effective policy. This policy proved to be helpful in improving irrigation efficiency and hence helps in reducing groundwater extraction. The policy may face resistance from upstream farmers due to excessive and cheap availability of irrigation water in their area, but can help in water reallocation and shift traditional methods of farming to more advanced techniques. The results point to social-economic aspects of groundwater management that have not been considered by other modeling studies to date. Moreover, this approach can improve the role of local stakeholder in decision-making processes concerning socio-environmental regulation and climate change mitigation policies.