A methodological framework for futures studies: integrating normative backcasting approaches and descriptive case study design for strategic data-driven smart sustainable city planning

Simon Elias Bibri

doi:10.1186/s42162-020-00133-5

Abstract

Originally proposed as an alternative to traditional energy planning methodology in the 1970s, backcasting is increasingly applied in futures studies related to sustainability, as it is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. This futures study is concerned with data-driven smart sustainable urbanism as an instance of sustainable urban development—a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of urban sustainability. This is at the core of backcasting, which typically defines criteria for a desirable (sustainable) future and builds a set of feasible and logical pathways between the state of the future and the present. This paper reviews, discusses, and justifies the methodological framework applied in the futures study. This aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future as a form of transformative change towards sustainability. This paper corroborates that the backcasting approach—as applied in the futures study—is well-suited for long-term urban problems and sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. It also suggests that case study research is the most effective way to underpin and increase the feasibility of future visions. Indeed, the case study approach as a research strategy facilitates the investigation and understanding of the underlying principles in the real-world phenomena involved in the construction of the future vision in the backcasting study. The novelty of this work lies in the integration of a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal. Visionary images of a long-term future based on normative backcasting can spur innovative thinking about and accelerate the movement towards sustainability. The proposed framework serves to help researchers in analyzing, investigating, and developing future models of sustainable urbanism, smart urbanism, and smart sustainable urbanism, as well as to support policymakers and facilitate and guide their actions with respect to transformative changes towards sustainability based on empirical research.

Highlights

In recent years, there has been a conscious push for sustainable cities across the globe to be smarter and more sustainable by developing and implementing data-driven technology solutions so as to optimize and enhance their operations, functions, services, designs, strategies, and policies in line with the vision of sustainability
As an emerging paradigm of urbanism, data-driven smart sustainable cities represents an instance of sustainable urban development, a strategic approach to achieving the long–term goals of urban sustainability—with support of advanced Information and Communication Technology (ICT), notably the Internet of Things (IoT) and big data technologies and their novel applications
It integrates a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal

Summary

Introduction

There has been a conscious push for sustainable cities across the globe to be smarter and more sustainable by developing and implementing data-driven technology solutions so as to optimize and enhance their operations, functions, services, designs, strategies, and policies in line with the vision of sustainability. Achieving the status of data-driven smart sustianable cities of the future in turn epitomizes an instance of urban sustainability This notion denotes a desired (normative) state in which a city retains a balance of the socio–ecological systems through adopting and executing sustainable development strategies as a desired (normative) trajectory (Bibri and Krogstie 2019a, b). This balance entails continuously improving and advancing the environmental, economic, social, and physical systems of the city over the long run—given their interdependence, synergy, and equal importance This strategic long-term goal requires fostering linkages between scientific research, technological innovation, policy analysis, institutional practices, planning strategies, and development projects and initiatives in relevance to sustainability. It requires a long–term vision, an interdisciplinary and trans–disciplinary approach, and a system–oriented perspective. Backcasting is well suited to any multifaceted kind of planning process (e.g., Holmberg and Robèrt 2000), as well as to the complex problems of sustainability (e.g., Bibri 2018a, 2018c, 2019a; Carlsson-Kanyama et al 2003; Höjer et al 2011; Holmberg 1998; Miola 2008; Quist 2007; Robert et al 2000)

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Methods

Conclusion