Abstract
Many world cities retain their unique industrial status. Such a feature of the economy of an industrial metropolis imposes additional requirements on the development of the forecast of spatial distribution of workplaces. The article highlights the contradictions of the long-term development of an industrial megalopolis, which become scenic forks, when forecasted. These include optimization of the industrial and trade-service sectors of the economy, the ratio of inertial and innovative development vectors, variability of migration flows and the choice of the agglomeration model type. The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting the development of a large metropolis, where the industrial sector plays a significant role in the economy. At the methodological level, the article justifies principles of spatial development of an industrial metropolis. The article describes forecasting tools for spatial location of workplaces, based on a combination of several models. The study was performed through the example of Ekaterinburg – the industrial capital of Russia; the metropolis scenarios were justified until 2035; the forecast of spatial distribution was calculated through the example of the two sectors competing for investments – industrial and trade-service. The authors substantiate spatial distribution of workplaces taking into account the projected number of people employed, the number of population of working age and distinguishing features of transport behavior of citizens. The paper demonstrates that the number of large industrial enterprises in a historically industrial center and its first zone decreases, and the modern industry in the form of small and medium-sized businesses located in industrial parks commence gradually forming a circuit with nodes on transport routes towards the largest consumer territories.
Highlights
An industrial metropolis is a city with population over one million, in which the share of industry in turnover of organizations exceeds 40% and the number of people employed in the industrial sphere amounts to approximately 20% of all economically active inhabitants
At the stage of setting the task of developing a long-term forecast, considering the tactical and local development priorities of the city, attention should be paid to the methods of strategic urbanism
The methods discussed in the paper allow substantiating the quantitative forecast of spatial location of workplaces on the basis of population resettlement models, gravitational models of transport behavior of residents and models of economic efficiency of the city space
Summary
An industrial metropolis is a city with population over one million, in which the share of industry in turnover of organizations exceeds 40% and the number of people employed in the industrial sphere amounts to approximately 20% of all economically active inhabitants. The future of any industrial city with a million-strong population in the horizon of 5-10 years is predetermined by the ideas of formation of a comfortable ergonomic space It aims to create a quality urban environment that is not inferior to the highest global standards. Accelerated investment growth cannot continue indefinitely – in the end, it comes into conflict with the infrastructure limitations (energy, capacity transport paths, etc.) and the decreasing efficiency of transaction load (Dubrovsky et al, 2016) This type of growth is replaced by innovative growth associated with the search for new technologies, while the quality of such development significantly changes. The purpose of this study is to validate the choice of approaches and models to forecast the long-term spatial development of the city, where the industrial sector plays a significant role in economy. The objectives of the project included the following: 1) the current assessment of the economic efficiency of the metropolitan area; 2) justification of scenic forks in the forecasting interval up to 2035; 3) forecast of the metropolis workplace location in the context of economic activities
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