A methodical approach to prediction of the possible scale of air adversary actions on the basis of determining the size of the needed equipment of air attack means to defect the main objects of units and military units in battle

Abstract

The experience of warfare [1,2] has shown that forecasting the likely scale of actions of the air enemy is one of the urgent issues that are being resolved by the chiefs of air defense, commanders of anti-aircraft units and headquarters during the planning of air defense and the conduct of combat operations. It allows you to determine the possible options for actions of the air enemy, to build or improve the air defense system (ADS) accordingly in order to ensure its sufficient effectiveness. The practice of air defense planning shows that when using traditional methods of forecasting the actions of the air adversary [3,4], an unacceptable overestimation or underestimation of the possible scope of the use of air attack means (AAM) is obtained. The forecasting results should be objective, because even minor changes in, say, the number of cruise missiles (CM), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) by subdivision and units significantly affect the required effectiveness of the air defense system [5]. In order to obtain more accurate results, a method of forecasting the possible scale of the air enemy’s actions is proposed by determining the size of the required AAM outfits to inflict damage on the main objects of subdivisions and military units that are taking cover in battle. The methodology can be included in the information and analytical system of ensuring decision-making processes for the creation of air defense systems of different levels of hierarchy.